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20181228 三石美中财经周记 – 过山车&新年快乐!

2019-08-16来源:网易星闻


我无法预测未来,只希望能尽力看清现在。

标普探底反弹周线级别趋势维持卖出第4反弹预期目标2600点

中美贸易谈判进展乐观

美国总统川普不松口,政府部分关门至新年

宏观经济指标

     o CONFERENCE BOARD消费者信心指数低于预期高位回落

     o 住宅地产价格指数继续上涨,涨速减缓; 现状的概述

股市过山车:财政部长电话大行CEO;养老金再平衡仓位

2019年的展望:正收益的股市;走弱的美元;持续的高波动

个股跟踪:特斯拉苹果亚马逊

中国市场 维持过往的观点,依然推荐在下跌寻找优质低估公司不断少量买入等待经济和市场的彻底转向后兑现A股在二次探底中,如果撑住会重启升势。我无法判断具体时点,但是很多好公司的股票都跌到很有价值了。宏观经济和企业盈利未来两个季度都不会有好的预期。但如果你买入好公司长期持有,未来三年应该会有不错的兑现机会。


金融市场


因为周二圣诞节休市所以上图的5 DAY 包含了12/21日这天)




这周在美国是大家都过节放假的一周,圣诞加新年理当休息一下,我也不例外,周五才去到公司上班一次,发现坐位上基本空了一半,下周从周三开始。可惜市场仍然如此动荡还是无法偷懒


过山车是本周的市场主题,即使没有任何重要消息出来的情况下。看看下面四个交易日的走势图。周一大跌2.7%, 周三暴涨5%,周四先大跌后暴涨,周五先暴涨后下跌反复最后平盘收尾,日内的波动率惊人

市场可以说周一找到了一个短期的底部,上2周提过我关注VIX指标是否在30以上。原因在于重要的底部通常会在VIX上到35左右时候形成。下面两个图是前两轮牛市第一次恐慌杀跌寻底的过程。短期底部都在VIX上涨到35左右。之后一个10%左右的反弹。


上篇文章已经提到过周一平安夜那天的疯狂杀跌。没有提到的一个起因是周末在度假的财政部长Steven Mnuchin看到市场长泻不止忍不住打电话给六大银行的头头们询问一下他们是否有流动性的问题。对于金融市场,最严重的问题,尤其对于银行来说就是没有流动性。没有流动性的时刻才是最恐慌和危机的时刻。所谓的流动性就是没有钱维持基本的商业运作,没有钱还短期的负债。直接的结果就是资产大甩卖来筹集现金,如果卖也卖不掉那就只有破产了。上轮金融危机时候的贝尔斯登和雷曼兄弟都是这么倒下的。最近的股市下跌虽然惨烈,但是普通人和从业者都没有想过流动性这个问题。因为现在的经济还在增长,银行系统和08年时候比要保守的多,资产负债表要健康很多。单就房贷的标准就比10年前严格很多,所以很多人无法贷款买房。银行间的拆借利率啥的也都还是健康的水平,远远不到流动性危机这么严重的时刻。不过他这么一问,反倒让一些人疑神疑鬼了,或者说至少去想想这个问题。比如我自己,既然看到了就会问问自己是不是真有啥大问题了咱们草民都还不知道的。好吧,无论如何联储主席算是有了一个暂时共同背锅的。下图是圣路易斯联储的金融压力指数,现在的状况距离危机时刻还很远。

再看一个近期M2和商业贷款的数据。如果银行真的没钱了,市场上流动性缺失,我们该看到信贷量的快速放缓。显然情况不是如此。

Mnuchin  acted on his own - Bloomberg

According to the report, Steven Mnuchin didn't inform the president of either his weekend calls to bank CEOs, or his plan to convene the President's Working Group on financial markets (aka the PPT).

Both actions, according to Bloomberg's source, were done as part of the normal capacity of the Treasury Secretary's job.

Sunday, December 23, 2018

'Plunge protection team' hard at work

Things are getting weird out there ... Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says he's spoken  with the chiefs of nation's six TBTF banks, and the likes of Brian Moynihan, Jamie Dimon, et al confirm they've got plenty of liquidity available for normal business operations.

Tomorrow, Mnuchin plans to convene a meeting of the President's Working Group on financial markets (of which the Fed is a part of).



关于本周三和周四的强劲反弹的原因市场上众说纷纭一个市场上讨论比较多的原因就是美国的养老金季末和年末需要调整仓位所以大笔买入股票。养老金(PENSION)通常有严格的资产配置的规则,比如说假定某养老金规定维持股票和债券的比例在60/40,每个季度末检验一下,如果由于价格变动引发比例的变化就要主动去增加或减少股票的配置。第四季度美国的股市大幅下跌,如果原来60/40配比的组合完全可能跌到55/45以下。这肯定超出了绝大多数养老金的合理波动范围,所以基金经理必须买入股票卖出债券以维持初始的60/40配比。我不认为这个养老金移仓自己就可以造成这么大的反弹,即使过节期间交易清淡,这个效果会更强。我更相信很多机构甚至个人投资者会看到这个超跌反弹的机会以及程序化交易的推波助澜。比如其它的一些有资产配置比例要求的基金也会做类似的动作。这应该是一个市场合力的结果。 另外一个原因就是空头回补。每次大反弹通常又空头回补开始,首先是空头会获利了结要买入股票,其次是周三大涨幅之下,迫使一些空头甚至会止损来买入股票回补空头仓位。

One Theory Is $60 Billion Pension Frenzy Fed Giant Stock Rebound

S&P 500 posts biggest upward reversl since 2010 on Thursday

Pensions have $60 billion to rebalance, among the most ever

By Elena Popina

(Bloomberg) -- 

Trying to figure out what caused the biggest single-day stock turnaround since 2010? At least one analyst attributes it to buying by pension funds that dove into equities after December’s carnage.

The S&P 500 Index posted the biggest upward reversal in eight years during Thursday’s session, rallying back from a 2.8 percent deficit. The about-face could reflect end-of-quarter adjustments by pension funds that have $60 billion of shares to buy this month, among the most ever, according to Wells Fargo’s Pravit Chintawongvanich.


技术分析(趋势)信号来看,第四周维持中线指标做空信号。上周的文章说到“最近几周的下跌,尤其是近一周下的太快了,市场超跌严重,短期有很强的反弹机会。如果反弹真的有,可以是个不错的降低股票占比的机会,2600点附近应该会有比较强的阻力了。反弹的确如期来到,但是不要轻易转换立场。上周的文章还说到“无论是真的熊市来到了还是如2011,2015年那样的深度调整,时间维度来看都远远不够修复损坏的技术指标。”观点不变。我们一起来数数吧,看看“做空”信号会在第几周反转。短期先看2600点附近的争夺吧。


贸易方面,这继续出现积极的信号。美国代表团下个月7日会到华继续贸易谈判。而周六美总统川普再发推特消息称和中国领导人进行了很有建设性的电话会谈。大概率贸易问题会是个长期的问题,即使中方满足了所有美国的要求。只要中国继续高速发展,老大和老二之间总会有冲突。关键是冲突级别的大小和方向。

Trump: 'Big progress' on China trade deal

Dec. 29, 2018 12:07 PM ET|ByYoel Minkoff , SA News Editor 

President Trump on Saturday said  he had a "long and very good call" with Xi Jinping and that a possible trade pact between the United States and China was making headway.

"Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!"


U.S., China trade meeting set for early January

A U.S. trade team will travel  to Beijing the week of Jan. 7 to hold talks with Chinese officials, according to Bloomberg.

Since President Trump and Xi Jinping came to a temporary truce almost a month ago, Beijing has slashed import tariffs and drafted a law to prevent forced technology transfers.

Trade tensions have weighed on the world's second-largest economy, with the latest data showing  China's industrial profits suffering their first drop in three years.

China to lower tariffs on more products

Cooling trade tensions? Starting Jan. 1, China plans to remove  import and export duties on a range of goods, including zero tariffs on ingredients for livestock feeds and certain medicines, according to the finance ministry.

It will also cancel tariffs on four types of solid waste such as manganese slag and lithium ion cells for new-energy vehicles, while lower provisional tariff rates would be adapted for aircraft engines, robots and other advanced equipment.

China weighs crackdown on forced tech transfers

Looking to address a complaint at the heart of the Sino-U.S. trade dispute, China is considering  a new law on foreign investment that would emphasize the illegality of forced tech transfer.

The measure could replace three existing rules regarding Chinese-foreign equity joint ventures, contractual joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned enterprises, which often later go on to compete with foreign investors through their parent companies.



White House doing some early damage control

Speaking to reporters, the president's top economic advisor Kevin Hassett says Fed Chairman Jay Powell's job is "100% safe." The most recent data, though, confirm Trump's view on rate hikes, he says.

As for the latest rumor - that Trump, unable to ax Powell, has set his sights on the Treasury Secretary - Hassett says the president is "very happy" with Steven Mnuchin.


Wednesday, December 26, 2018

 Stocks score broad rally; Dow racks up biggest one-day point gain in history

The DJIA staged its largest one-session rally in terms of points in its history, adding 1,086 points (+5%) to wipe out the Christmas Eve massacre - but still 700 points away from recouping the 1,800 points, or nearly 8%, lost on the blue chip index from the four trading sessions before today.

The Trump administration continued today to try to ease the market's recent volatility, as Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said Fed Chairman Powell is “100%” secure in his position, despite Trump’s repeated criticisms.

Rebounding oil prices, strong holiday retail sales and some short covering also helped drive today's gains, which included 5% bumps for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 as well as a 5.8% jump in the Nasdaq Composite.

Most heartening was the departure from the recent pattern of selling into the close, as stocks instead bounced off an early dip into the red to move higher and accelerate gains in the final hour of trading.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by consumer discretionary (+6.3%), energy (+6.2%) and information technology (+6.1%).

Amazon surged 9.5% after announcing a record breaking holiday season, and the broader retail space enjoyed a boost from MasterCard's SpendingPulse report which said holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 showed the strongest Y/Y growth rate since 2011 as well as a new record for dollars spent.

Energy stocks marched higher as crude oil prices rallied from 17-month lows set Monday on continuing worries about oversupply; U.S. February WTI settled 8.7% higher at $46.22/bbl, its largest one-day percentage gain since November 2016, although it is still nearly 40% below its early October high.

U.S. Treasury prices fell as investors bought riskier assets, with the two-year yield adding 3 bps to 2.60% and the 10-year yield gaining 5 bps to 2.80%; the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.5% to 97.07.


本周的新出的宏观经济指标不多。整体上仍然是高位运行,增速减缓的态势。未来1年内经济衰退的概率仍然很小。综合基本面(乐观)技术面(悲观)来看,对市场的态度维持中性偏负面,中长期指数投资层面会在反弹到2600点附近减少一小部分仓位,具体要看基本面的变化


下面的投资建议基本维持不变超跌反弹已经开始,如果能到达反弹的目标区间2600点到2700点区间,是否减仓看你个人的具体情况。


对于指数投资或者退休金账户投资)建议维持不变

1. 结合自己的风险承受能力和偏好以及财务的规划,想如果熊市可能来到,的投资账户里打算持有多少百分比的股票

2. 近期大跌后如果有反弹可以借此机会调整自己的资产配置达到熊市下你愿意持有的比例不太可能一路下跌不反弹,所以最好不要在大跌的时候卖出。

3. 如果成功筑底后技术面再次出现买入的信号时候再买回一些仓位。这种操作绝对不可以频繁做,否则就是自己打脸。所以卖出和买入的信号都是中长期的,几年才会出来一次。


对于个股投资的建议维持不变

1. 降低对于成长股的预期

2. 寻找估值合理或者低估的标的

3. 适当的对冲


本周的实盘操作:

401K退休账户里买入指数基金2%。原因和前文说的养老金的资产配置再平衡一样,快速的下跌导致股票占比大幅低于既定的比例。遗憾的是周三涨幅太大了,而退休金账户即使是上午买入也是按照收盘价计算。

继续在132少量加仓了阿里巴巴之后随大盘反弹后没有再买入。130一线的前期低点支撑仍在。


大盘科技FAANG 股票们本周都强劲的反弹了原油价格和相应的股票(XOP)也都大幅反弹,原油将来的短期走势我无法判断,但是目前美国原油开采(页岩油)公司的成本基本都是45刀以上,如果跌破了,自然可以期待公司减产。周四的大反转后来看,反弹延续的概率比较大。但是我不计划再买入,除非股票再跌回来。二次探底甚至创新低的概率很大,不太可能就此一路向上不再回头了。


2018年就剩最后一个交易日了,展望2019年,唯一可以确定的就是处在高位的波动率。波动率是风险吗?不同的人,不同的目的看待市场波动的态度也是不同的。现代金融理论将风险定义为资产的波动性,但是对于长线的价值投资者甚至是交易者来说波动代表着机会。只有巨大的波动才可能会带来好的买入机会,对于投资者来说,大幅的暴跌才是最好的拣便宜货的时机。对于交易者来说,没有波动的市场是没有投机的机会的,也是痛苦的。当市场快速大幅波动的时候,变化的只是参与者的出价和对未来经济与企业盈利的预期,但是经济和企业盈利都只会慢慢的变化。公司还是那个公司,短期里价值不会变化,只是市场出价变了。理性的投资者如果不去看那么多纷繁复杂的技术图表和模棱两可的市场评论,只是专注于企业本身,可能会乐于见到大幅下跌的股价。谁不喜欢商品打折呢?

2019年的展望(1)

2019年标普的盈利预期还是增长5%-9%

2019年标普的回报率大概率为正如果没有经济衰退发生(美股连续两年负收益的年份非常少,假设12/31日股市不会大涨使得年收益为正

2019年美元应该会大概率走平或走弱,除非美联储继续大力加息

挥之不去的高波动多半会新的一年里的主旋律


2019年的一季度会是一个重要观察点,因为几个影响市场和经济活动的事件都可能会更明朗

美联储是否由鹰派态度转为明显的鸽派态度

中美贸易谈判的结果

英国脱欧的结果



宏观经济

这周出炉的宏观数据很少,新出来的消费者信心指数大幅回落,市场有些意外。因为上周新出的密西根大学的消费者信心指数是超预期上涨的。这周这个是另外一个主要的信心指数(CONFERENCE BOARD),两者趋势上基本是同步的,但是单个周期上有矛盾也正常。这个后出来的也许受到股市下跌的影响更大些。我们继续观察下个月的数据看是否形成下行趋势。零售数据持续不错。

Consumer confidence declines in December

December Consumer Confidence : 128.1 vs. 134 consensus; 136.4 prior in November (revised).

Present situation Index 171.6 vs. 172.7 prior

Expectations Index 99.1 vs. 112.3 prior.

Chain store sales tops  7.8%

Chain store sales increased 7.8% in the latest weekly read by Johnson Redbook vs. +7.1% for the week prior.

Month-to-date sales are 7.2% higher.


房地产

这周主要出了两个价格指数的数据住宅房地产(全美平均)的现状是

新房和二手房的交易量都在减少

库存处于历史地位

房价还在不断上涨(会导致房屋销售量更小)2018年涨幅在5.5%左右

2019年预计这种情况不变,只是库存会小幅增加,房价会小幅上涨,预期3%左右

后面几张图可以看到现在的房价和历史相比

o 名义房价超过2006年最高点

o 实际房价(去除通胀)还在2003-2004年左右水平

o 房价/房租 还在 2003-2004年左右水平

Inventories will probably increase further in 2019 , but will probably still be somewhat low historically.   Even though the housing market has slowed recently (fewer sales), and inventory has increased, there will be little panic selling because lending standards have been decent over the last several years.    There are always people that have to sell because of the 3-Ds: Divorce, Death and Disease, but solid lending means there is no current need to sell because of a fourth D: Debt (like happened during the housing bust). Low inventories, and a dece 转载文章地址:http://www.peripheralsurveys.com/lishi/6732.html
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